Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Croatia
  • Switzerland
  • Italy
  • US
  • United Kingdom
  • Sweden
  • Germany
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Cote d'Ivoire
  • Yemen
  • Qatar
  • Saudi Arabia

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $115,626$ on 2020-11-26

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,552$ on 2020-11-26

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,725$ on 2020-11-26

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $313,978$ on 2020-11-26

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,509$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,198.5}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 42.3)}}\) (asimptote \(2,198.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $90,569$ on 2020-11-26

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,509,875$ on 2020-11-26

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $52,850$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{36,756.3}{1 + 10^{-0.029 (t - 49.5)}}\) (asimptote \(36,756.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $795,845$ on 2020-11-26

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $12,883,264$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,475,075.7}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 224.7)}}\) (asimptote \(17,475,075.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $263,454$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{251,277.9}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 112.7)}}\) (asimptote \(251,277.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,748,607$ on 2020-11-26

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,578,429$ on 2020-11-26

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $57,128$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,267.4}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 48.3)}}\) (asimptote \(43,267.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,517,847$ on 2020-11-26

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $236,355$ on 2020-11-26

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,622$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,881.1}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 53.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,881.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $229,733$ on 2020-11-26

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,017,830$ on 2020-11-26

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $15,640$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,798.8}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 41.6)}}\) (asimptote \(9,798.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $316,653$ on 2020-11-26

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Cote d'Ivoire recovered 96%
Yemen recovered 93%
Qatar recovered 93%
Saudi Arabia recovered 92%
Iceland recovered 87%
El Salvador recovered 81%
Bahrain recovered 79%
Bolivia recovered 76%
Tajikistan recovered 73%
Venezuela recovered 65%
Nepal recovered 64%
Kuwait recovered 63%
Czechia recovered 62%
Jordan recovered 53%
Kyrgyzstan recovered 44%
Armenia recovered 37%
Switzerland recovered 35%
Togo recovered 33%
Bangladesh recovered 32%
Argentina recovered 23%
Slovakia recovered 23%
Austria recovered 13%
Libya recovered 3%

Cote d'Ivoire⮸

Population $26,378,274$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $21,199$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{20,325.6}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 103.2)}}\) (asimptote \(20,325.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $131$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{125.7}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 83.1)}}\) (asimptote \(125.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $216$ on 2020-11-26

Yemen⮸

Population $29,825,964$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-05-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,137$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,042.3}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 50.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,042.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-05-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $612$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{592.2}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 56.8)}}\) (asimptote \(592.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-05-10 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $41$ on 2020-11-26

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $138,066$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{126,474.0}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 99.2)}}\) (asimptote \(126,474.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $237$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{223.7}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 96.4)}}\) (asimptote \(223.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,631$ on 2020-11-26

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $356,389$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{343,925.1}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 107.5)}}\) (asimptote \(343,925.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,840$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,749.2}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 129.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,749.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,334$ on 2020-11-26